[This is an EXCERPT: read the whole article here, and about George Monbiot's interview with Fatih Birol here. -Ed.]

by Terry Macalister and George Monbiot

Fatih Birol, chief economist to the International Energy Agency, told the Guardian that conventional crude output could plateau in 2020, a development that was "not good news" for a world still heavily dependent on petroleum.

The IEA has never before been specific about the point at which so-called conventional oil would peak. It said last month that total crude output could peak in 2030. Birol's comments follow other signs that the IEA is rapidly changing its view. In its 2007 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted a rate of decline from the world's existing oil fields at 3.7%, only to admit 12 months later that the speed of the fall was more likely 6.7%.

Jeremy Leggett, chief executive of solar energy company Solarcentury, said Birol's views underplayed the scale of the problem. "The IEA is very constrained in what it can say - by the demands of its constituent governments - so you have to read between the lines. We believe that peak oil will come about in 2013 at the latest but the real concern from the IEA is the adjustment of production figures," he said.

Three years ago the Paris-based organisation still denied there was any fundamental threat to the world's petroleum economy.

Photo source: © IEA.org