Resources

This report, prepared for the Portland Peak Oil Task Force in 2006, is a good introduction to the issue report, and also takes into consideration many aspects of the city's vitality and resiliency. The categories of potential areas of impact were influential in shaping the task force's inquiries and eventual recommendations.
Download the report here or from the Portland Office of Sustainable Development. This report is a good model for a briefing document, giving both a survey of the global energy situation and providing some guidance in an impact inquiry. The following is an excerpt from the section "Identifying Potential Impacts of Peak Oil and Natural Gas":
One of the main charges to the Peak Oil Task Force is to identify the potential impacts of peak oil in Portland. Once the impacts are identified, it will be easier for the task force to target its recommendations for maximum effectiveness. The following section provides an introduction to some of the likely areas of impact, and to serve as a guide in developing a more in-depth analysis.
Some of the major impacts are quickly determined by reviewing where oil and natural gas are used directly. Virtually all transportation - surface, water, and air ⎯ are fueled by petroleum-based products. Natural gas heats half of Oregon homes and businesses, including most new homes, and is used to generate more than 7 percent of Oregon’s electricity. Oil and natural gas provide process heat for various industrial processes, and about 10 percent of each fuel is used as feedstock to produce products such as chemicals, fertilizer, asphalt and plastics. Price increases or cutbacks in key fuel resources will affect these activities. Impacts on these activities will vary depending on the ability to conserve, find substitutes, consolidate and re-prioritize activities. Impacts may also vary according to the percentage of a business operation’s activities dependent on the fuel resource, although in many cases the fuel resource may be critical even at low percentages of the overall operation.
Other impacts may be secondary ⎯ that is, they may not depend directly on oil, but may depend instead on products or services that are impacted directly by the price or availability of oil. For example, as oil and natural gas become more expensive or less available, a larger share of personal incomes will go toward transportation and heating,
and sales of other products and services may suffer. Alternatively, land use patterns may shift as businesses and residents relocate in response to problems with cost and availability of oil. This, in turn, may affect public services.
Below are some of the major areas which may experience impacts and questions intended to foster discussion. The task force is not anticipated to answer all of these questions but rather to assess which are the most relevant for Portland and illustrate the most significant local vulnerabilities.
Transportation
How will transportation modes and patterns be affected? Air transportation is likely to be one of the first sectors to be impacted by peak oil. How will that affect Portlanders? How will ports and intercontinental shipping be affected, and what will that mean for the
economy in the Portland area? How will surface transportation be affected?
Commuting? Inter-city and regional travel? Long-haul trucking? Intra-city trucking and distribution of goods? Warehousing and "just-in-time" delivery? Will rail, both long-haul and intra-city light rail, help minimize disruptions?
Land Use
In addition to population shifts, will there be other changes is how land is used? What will happen to regional malls and vehicle-oriented developments? Will there be increased pressure for mixed uses? How will neighborhoods be affected? Will some areas become depopulated? If so, what to do with them? What are the implications on roads, transportation, and traffic patterns? How about urban design?
Economic Impacts
Businesses can be affected in two primary ways: by how the price or availability of oil or natural gas impacts the product or service they provide, and by how it affects demand for their product or service among their customer groups. Economic activities which are nonessential, or those where oil and natural gas are critical resources which cannot easily be substituted or reduced, stand to be negatively impacted. For example, RV and long vacations may be one of the first activities to be affected, as might the chemical industry
which uses oil and natural gas as a feedstock for production. Other activities may maintain, still others may thrive. For planning purposes, which economic activities are at risk? What services or products unique to the region will be in high demand in an era of
peak oil? What products or services provide a unique economic development opportunity for the region? How will heavy industry be affected? Light industry? Retail? Finance and insurance? Real estate? Construction? What are the implications for employment? What can the city do to minimize the impacts in these areas?
Housing
How will housing and housing patterns be impacted? Will new construction be impacted as people opt to fix up existing homes? How will availability of construction materials be affected? Will people look for smaller housing in an attempt to reduce costs? Will there
be a move toward infill development, or dividing large homes into smaller units? How will jobs in real estate and the construction trades be affected? Will upkeep and maintenance suffer as people spend more on heating and transportation? Will homelessness increase? Are there particularly vulnerable demographic groups?
Food
The ability to transport food over long distances will be impacted. Also, price and availability of products which are highly dependent on fossil inputs (i.e., natural gas for fertilizers, oil for pesticides) will be significantly affected. For example, yields of corn,
our largest crop, could drop from 130 bushels per acre today to 30 bushels per acre without fertilizer. These are just a few examples. What are the implications of this for Portland? How will food production change? Food processing? Long-distance transportation? Distribution? Storage and preservation? How will the price and
availability of food be affected? Diet and nutrition? What are some potential problems if left unaddressed?
Public Services
Considering some of the possible population, economic, housing and land-use shifts, how will demand for public services such as water, sewer, police, and fire be affected? Will crime increase, decrease, or change in character? Will the need for fire protection increase if housing is poorly maintained? How will provision of these public services be affected? What are the implications on costs? How will these services be maintained?
What if people can’t afford to pay (i.e., water, sewer)? What are the consequences of reductions in services? (Transportation, planning, housing and social services are discussed in separate sections.)
[also addressed:
- Population Shifts
- Social Services
- Health Services
- Education
- Electricity
- Manufacturing
- Retail Business
- Communications]




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