Post Carbon Cities Blog
As the price of oil goes up, we've seen the demand for transit rise as well. But the capacity to fill this demand doesn't just appear when needed; it requires prior planning. Daniel Lerch writes about the dilemmas facing cities and their transit systems in the face of sudden popularity.
As the price of oil goes up, we've seen the demand for transit rise as well. But the capacity to fill this demand doesn't just appear when needed; it requires prior planning. Daniel Lerch writes about the dilemmas facing cities and their transit systems in the face of sudden popularity.
As gasoline rises past a record $4 per gallon in the United States1, we're hearing more and more about people leaving their cars for public transit. In the first few months of 2008, transit ridership has increased 5% on New York City's commuter trains, 8% in Denver's system, and a full 16% on Minneapolis-St. Paul light rail, compared to the same time last year. Miami's commuter rail saw a whopping 28% year-over-year increase just for April.2
The ability of people to switch from cars to transit (or bicycling or walking, for that matter), however, is directly tied to the past planning and investment decisions made by local government. As peak oil expert John Kaufmann has said, you can't wake up to $200 per barrel oil one morning and build a light rail system that same afternoon. In the same vein, Clark Williams-Derry of Sightline Institute has recently noted that motorists in regions without much mass transit will soon wish they had more options -- options which take quite a few years in the making.
- Bob Clifford, Florida DoT,
St. Petersburg Times, 16 May 08
To be sure, many cities are expanding their transportation options as quickly as possible. Salt Lake City just ordered 77 new light rail cars, more than doubling its current stock and setting a record for Siemens' largest-ever order of LRT vehicles. Chicago recently secured federal funding for the first lines of its new bus rapid transit network. Even Omaha, Nebraska, a city not exactly known for alternative transportation, is installing its first on-street bike lanes.
But serving transportation needs in a world of $100+ oil requires more than capital investments in trains, buses and bikes. The systems that support these transportation investments must themselves be suited to the broader economic changes driven by these rising energy costs. For example, Denver's transit system is very much supported by a general sales tax -- but in recent months, sales tax revenue has been flat while transit ridership has soared. Faced with rising demand, rising fuel costs, and no additional revenue, Denver is now in the unfortunate position of considering transit service cuts just when transit desperately needs to be expanded.
Denver's conundrum is perhaps an example of what happens when we address one issue (e.g., public transit) without considering the context within which that issue exists (e.g., the regional economy, funding structures, supporting land uses, the changes of all these things over time). Such absence of systems thinking is unfortunately all too common in transportation planning, whether it's neighbors resisting new and denser development in classic NIMBY fashion, or a city government investing in airport-oriented development without considering the future of jet fuel costs.
At Post Carbon Cities we talk not so much about peak oil as about energy uncertainty. That's because, as the examples above show, the problem we face is not high energy prices per se but rather the uncertainties created by peak oil. For transportation, these uncertainties especially mean that we must prepare well ahead of time if we're going to provide our communities with mobility options like rail, buses and bicycling. And we must do so in ways that can adapt to the changing economic, social and environmental needs we face in the 21st century.
1^ Gasoline/petrol, of course, is already well past this mark elsewhere, with prices above the equivalent of $8 per gallon in Germany and $9.50 per gallon in the UK.
2^ Source: Krauss, C. (10 May 2008) "Gas Prices Send Surge of Riders to Mass Transit." New York Times.
Photo: Daniel Lerch 
Post Carbon Cities is one of the key resources focusing communities on addressing peak oil as well as climate challenges. The inspiration, updated information, and pragmatic assistance that you provide is truly needed at all levels of government.
Land use, of course, is also a big part of the relationship between energy prices and demand for transit. Folks who want to read more about this should check out our article on the land use / transportation connection in our May newsletter, as well as the short section on transportation, land use and energy in Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty.
These two recent news items are also relevant:
- Peak oil spike reshapes the suburbs (15 May 2008)
- High fuel prices hit Sydney's suburbs hard (10 May 2008)
Laurel Hoyt
Program Coordinator
Post Carbon Cities
Looks like the Long Island commuter railroad is having a somewhat similar problem, except in this case it's not existing service but service expansion plans that are threatened:
Real estate revenue deficit may derail MTA's plans
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/transportation/ny-limta235698484may23,0,4203664.story
Funding transit with real estate taxes makes a little more sense to me than funding it with sales taxes. But still, you have to wonder at the degree to which LIRR banked on an ever-expanding housing market to fund service improvements.
Aren't there any transit agencies that projected higher gasoline prices and as a result *anticipated* the need for larger/different funding sources in order to meet increased demand (because of people leaving their cars)?
Brooke
In addition, light rail and transit buses may not be the energy conservation panacea they are often thought to be on a BTU per Passenger mile basis. According to US DOT, transit buses and light rail have higher BTU's per passenger mile than autos in some scenarios.
See page 3-20 Exhibit 3-13. Energy intensity for different passenger transportation needs:
http://www.transportationfortomorrow.org/final_report/pdf/volume_2_chapter_3.pdf
Source: Transportation for Tomorrow: Report of the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission
Care must be taken to balance and reduce energy expenditures as well as energy sources least we find ourselves building new systems we cannot afford down the road.
Here in Maine's number one tourist destination (3.5 million car visitors/year), we've got lots of work to do but recently got the extension of the Amtrak Downeaster at least partially funded. Thanks to the genius of historic village planning the train line bisects the heart of our walkable downtown. We're on our way to positioning ourselves as a transit-oriented destination.
More on this here on the FutureFreeport blog: www.futurefreeport.com.
Peter Troast
Freeport, ME
www.futurefreeport.com
Anybody who thinks that public transport is scalable in the context of the physical infrastructure of the US within the time frame set by the coincidence of global climate change and peak oil is dreaming.
I'm currently living in Vancouver, Canada--- a city that has made as significant an effort to establish public transport as any in North America. It has a very high residential density, a strong economy unaffected by the mortgage shell games played out in the US, and gas prices that have historically always been higher than the US. (Currently approaching $7.00 per gallon.)
In spite of these economic factors driving the city toward reduced auto use, Vancouver is still largely dependent upon the private automobile.
Given that the infrastructure of most of Canada and the US has grown up to serve the needs of the private automobile, it cannot be remade to function otherwise overnight in a future that will no longer have a bottomless supply of cheap energy, capital resources and resource extraction based growth.
If there is a solution to the future of transportation infrastructure it will come from very efficient personal transportation vehicles powered by electrons from the sun wind, and tides,rather than fossils. For an example of what is achievable right now, look at the latest product from IDEALAB, the APTERA vehicle. (http://www.aptera.com) Similar 250 MPG equivalent vehicles could easily replace fossil fueled contemporary cars for a large percentage of travel. They can be mass produced to meet almost any level of demand, and can slot into the short replacement cycle of the automobile to have a significant impact before any mass transit system can even be authorized or funded.
I started replying to Horizon's comment (above) and that turned into a new blog post, which you can read here:
http://postcarboncities.net/blog/daniel-lerch/public-transit-dream